U.S. Will Be More Hispanic In 2043

NEW YORK CITY (By Eunice Moscoso, NYTimes) October 24, 2006 — Emanuel Plata, who may be the 300 millionth American, lays in a bassinet at Elmhurst Hospital Center in New York on Tuesday, Oct. 17, 2006. He was among the babies born at or about 7:46 a.m. Eastern time, when, the Census Bureau estimates, the nation's population reached that milestone.

When the United States passes its next major population milestone of 400 million people, it will be a greatly changed nation facing a new set of social and political conflicts.

At that point - expected to arrive in 2043 - the forces of immigration, aging, technology growth and globalization will have reshaped the country of 300 million Americans we know today, demographers and other experts say.

One of the biggest changes will take place inside the famed melting pot.

Recent growth has been driven largely by a large wave of immigration, and its effects will be more visible by 2043.

The nation will be more than 22 percent Hispanic, up from less than 13 percent today, while non-Hispanic whites' share of the population will have fallen from nearly 70 percent to just over 55 percent. Hispanics can be of any race.

The share of non-Hispanic black residents will grow slightly to more than 13 percent, while non-Hispanic Asians' share will grow by more than half to nearly 8 percent.

In fact, predicted William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution in Washington, the picture will be more complicated. He said 20 percent to 30 percent of the population will be multiracial by mid-century.

"The strong racial lines we've had in the United States will start to blur," Frey said.

He said that means people's racial and ethnic backgrounds will be increasingly less important to their self-identity, and that Americans might be more defined by their wealth or their skills in a knowledge-based economy.

The racial changes will transform politics as well.

Harry Pachon, president of the Tomas Rivera Policy Institute at the University of Southern California, said that in 2043 more mayors and governors will be Latinos.

"We'll see more elected office-holders with a lot of vowels in their last names," he said.

However, a certain percentage will have last names that do not sound Hispanic, he added, because by the third generation in the United States, about half of Latinos marry people of other ethnicities.

Another major change ahead is in the demographic "shape" of the population.

By 2050, the Census Bureau projects, 20.7 percent of the population will be 65 or older, up from 12.4 percent today. Meanwhile, the share of Americans in the prime working years of 20 and 64 will fall to 53.4 percent from 59 percent today.

That will mean fewer workers paying taxes to support more people drawing Social Security and Medicare.

What's more, notes Linda Jacobsen, director of domestic programs at the Population Reference Bureau, 35 percent of African-American children and 28 percent of Hispanic children live in poverty. These children are a major portion of the nation's future workers and will be called upon to support an older population of baby boomers.

"If the nation doesn't address these age and race differences in poverty and well-being, today's children may be less able or willing to support the predominantly white, non-Hispanic elderly when they reach adulthood," she said in a written report.

The inevitable argument over paying for those pensions will take on a regional character.

Frey said that based on the number of young immigrants and baby boomers in the states now, the "old America" will likely include parts of the Midwest and the Great Plains states and "young America" will be concentrated in the Southeast and Southwest.

He predicted young states, where median ages in 2030 are projected to be in the 30s, will include Georgia, Utah, Texas, Colorado, California and Virginia. Old states, where the median age is projected to be in the 40s, will include West Virginia, Vermont, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

More of the overall population will be Southern as migration continues away from the Midwest and Northeast to the South and West. The Census Bureau predicts that four in 10 Americans will be Southerners by 2030.

Some analysts see other dark prospects in America's future.

Roy Beck, president of NumbersUSA, a group that seeks to curtail high rates of immigration and population growth, said that the influx of people is contributing to suburban sprawl, traffic congestion, overcrowded schools and hospitals, and a decreased quality of life for most Americans, especially on the East Coast, West Coast, Gulf Coast and along the Great Lakes.

In addition, he said the rapid loss of farmland to encroaching development is cause for alarm.

"We are approaching the possibility that in 20 to 30 years, it will take every bit of farmland in this country just to feed ourselves," he said. "Is it really a good idea to do away with our ability to provide food to other parts of the world?"

But Daniel Griswold, director of the Center for Trade Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, a libertarian think tank in Washington, said that Americans should be careful about scary predictions for the future.

"It was only 30 years ago that we were being told that we were about to suffer a population explosion, massive famine on the horizon, running out of resources and food and living space, and those predictions have proven to be spectacularly wrong," he said. "Fundamentally, our growing population shows the optimism and hope Americans have for the future."

Compared to 1967, when the population hit 200 million, "we're living better lives, we're living longer, the air we breathe and the water we drink are cleaner, our houses are bigger, we certainly have plenty of food. I see no reason why those positive trends won't continue into the future," he said.

Griswold also said that in 2043, U.S. population growth fueled by young immigrants will give it a competitive advantage over Japan and Western Europe, which are going to lose 15 million people from their population by then.

President Bush said the continued growth is "a testament to our country's dynamism and a reminder that America's greatest asset is our people."

"So long as we insist on high standards in education, place our trust in the talents and ingenuity of ordinary Americans, and protect our freedoms, we will remain the land of opportunity for generations to come," he said in a statement.