Vulnerable incumbents and open seats

It is not yet clear which seats will have the most competitive races. Past election history indicates that incumbents are difficult to defeat, even when their party affiliation is at odds with the natural tendencies of the district, and that the most competitive races are those where the incumbent retires, followed by those in which the incumbent has served only one term. Besides the elections listed here, it is possible that additional special elections will be held due to the death or resignation of Representatives in the interim. This would also change the party balances.

There are currently 30 open seats—28 incumbents who will not be seeking re-election plus 2 vacancies, both of which will be filled before the general election. Of the 28 open seats, 19 are held by Republicans, 8 are held by Democrats and 1 is held by an independent. One of the vacant seats which will be filled before the general election was held by a Republican and the other was held by a Democrat.

Notable races

Arizona

• Arizona's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Rick Renzi (R) is well-known for his strong, arguably extreme conservative positions in a district that is moderately conservative at best. In 2002 he won only 49% of the vote, elected by just 6,000 votes. Renzi gained national attention in 2004 when he engaged in a screaming match against moderate Republican Mark Kirk of Illinois over the issue of embryonic stem cell research, which Renzi considers an act of murder. According to media reports, Renzi choked Kirk during the incident. Both Congressmen have since denied the reports. Renzi has also stated that he will not return some $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, despite calls from Democrats to do so. Liberal advocacy group Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has included Renzi in its list of the 13 most corrupt members of the House of Representatives. However, Renzi's leading opponent dropped out of the race and none of the Democrats currently running are considered viable candidates.

• Arizona's 5th congressional district— Incumbent J.D. Hayworth (R) appeared on his way to an easy reelection this election cycle, but that has changed. Democrats have a locally well-known candidate in state Senator Harry Mitchell, a former Mayor of Tempe. Mitchell has been a political force in his home town, one of the largest communities in the district, and Democrats are enthusiastic about his candidacy. A May 9 Survey USA poll shows Hayworth leading by only 50% to 45%. The district Hayworth represents leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Republicans are concerned, but point out that Mitchell has gotten off to a late start and that Hayworth will be well-funded.

• Arizona's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Kolbe (R) announced on November 23, 2005 that he would not seek re-election in 2006 ^[1]. His district, located in Southeastern Arizona and based in the suburbs of Tucson, is Republican-leaning, but competitive: President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2004 (although only 50% in 2000). Also, the fact that it has been electing Kolbe, an openly gay Republican, for 2 decades, often with high margins (61% in 2004), shows that this district is by no means a social conservative stronghold. The Democratic candidate former State Senator Gabrielle Giffords who resigned from the Arizona Legislature on December 1, 2005 in preparation for her Congressional campaign. Republican Randy Graf, a former state Representative who challenged Kolbe for their party's nomination in 2004, is also running on the Republican ticket.

California

• California's 11th congressional district— Longtime incumbent Richard Pombo (R) won reelection in 2004 by a reasonably comfortable 61% to 39% margin. However, Pombo has used his chairmanship of the House Natural Resources Committee to pursue an aggressive program of anti-environmental legislation, including a draft bill that would have repealed the Endangered Species Act. The considerable amount of negative attention this has drawn from supporters of the environmentalist philosophy, may spur particular efforts to vote Pombo out of office. Pombo has also been associated with the ethical and legal scandals revolving around Tom DeLay and Jack Abramoff and is currently under investigation, which is seen as eroding his popular support. The Democratic candidate who garnered the 39% in 2004, Jerry McNerney, joined that race as a write-in candidate two weeks before the primary election; he launched his campaign for the 2006 election early in 2005, ensuring that his campaign will be better prepared and pose a more formidable challenge this time around. Another Democratic candidate for the seat, Steve Filson, is being supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. Additionally, Pombo will be challenged for the Republican nomination by former Representative Pete McCloskey, one of the co-authors of the Endangered Species Act. The eleventh district is located in the San Joaquin Valley well east of the San Francisco Bay Area and leans Republican. A recent poll shows Pombo losing to both Democratic challengers in November—Democratic challenger Steve Filson 49-41 and Jerry McNerney, 46-42[1]

• California's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Republican Bill Thomas, a prominent and influential member of the Republican caucus, is retiring after more than 25 years in Congress. He represents agricultural Central Valley, a Republican stronghold where 52% of voters are registered Republicans and 30% are Democrats. He won re-election in 2004 unopposed. Republican Leader of the California Assembly, Kevin McCarthy has announced his run for the GOP nomination. McCarthy is very popular in the Central Valley.^[2]

• California's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Elton Gallegly (R) originally announced his retirement just hours before the filing deadline, much to the shock of the local political establishment. The 62-year-old ten-term congressman cited "unresolved health issues" for his decision. Gallegly had already filed and would have remained on the ballot. The late withdrawal meant that no additional candidates could file for the seat. After substantial pressure, coming even from the White House, Gallegly announced he would indeed run for one more term after receiving clearance from his physician. [2] It is unclear how voters will view the retirement/unretirement. However, Gallegly handily won with 60 percent of the vote here in his last election and the district supported George W. Bush 56-44 in 2004. The district covers inland areas of Santa Barbara County and Ventura County in the Los Angeles suburbs, including Thousand Oaks, California. Rev. Jill Martinez is running on the Democrats' side. Michael Tenenbaum is facing Gallegly in the Republican primary.

• California's 26th congressional district— Incumbent David Dreier (R) was largely considered a political moderate until recent years, in which he drifted sharply to the right in pursuit of a higher position in Republican House leadership. Raw Story reported that he was passed over because he is homosexual and he was formally outed in 2004 by Doug Ireland in the L.A. Weekly. Dreier has never discussed his sexual orientation. [3] Due to these rumors and his abandonment of his previously moderate positions, his electoral margins have thinned significantly, and he won only 54% of the vote in 2004 against an openly homosexual Democratic candidate, Cynthia Matthews, whose rhetoric was denounced by the national Democratic party when she chastised Dreier for not coming out. The district has also had a slight narrowing of the Republican registration advantage since 2002. [4] Sonny Sardo a local businessman running on an anti-illegal immigration platform will run against Dreier in the GOP primary. Matthews and Russ Warner will face off in the Democratic primary.

• California's 41st congressional district— Incumbent Republican Jerry Lewis (R) is under investigation of his connections to the lobbyists that bribed former Representative Duke Cunningham (R).[5][6][7] As election day nears and the scandal heats up, this long-time incumbent faces a potentially tough race in this long-time conservative stronghold.[8] Lewis received 83% of the vote in 2004, but he faced no Democratic opposition. He will face Democrat Louie Contreras in November.

• California's 50th congressional district— (Main: California 50th congressional district special election, 2006. By November 7, 2006, there should be an incumbent representative.) Republican Duke Cunningham announced on July 14, 2005 that he would not seek a ninth term in the House. On November 28, 2005, he resigned his house seat after confessing to taking bribes from defense contractors. A primary special election to fill the vacancy took place on April 11, 2006. Since no candidate won 50% of the vote, a runoff will be held on June 6, 2006 between the top vote-getter of each party. The main candidates are Republican Brian Bilbray, a former Congressman, and Democrat Francine Busby, a Cardiff School Board Trustee. These candidates are also running in the simultaneous primary election for the following full term that will be decided in the November general election. This district includes the northern suburbs of San Diego and leans Republican. Busby garnered 37% against Cunningham's 58% in 2004. Busby won 44% in the primary special election, which is ahead of the normal Democratic vote in the area but clearly short of the 50%+1 majority she needed to win outright. Recent polling conducted by a Republican firm has shown Busby leading Bilbray by 43% to 37%;[9] a poll by Survey USA shows Busby and Bilbray tied at 45% each,[10] and one by a Democratic pollster puts Busby ahead at 47% to 40%.[11] Complicating the race is the fact that the primary for the general election happens to be on the same day as the special election runoff. The more conservative Eric Roach, who lost to moderate Bilbray in the primary special election by a margin of 15.3% to 14.5%, will be on the primary election ballot though he has announced he is not "aggressively" campaigning.[12] Millionaire Bill Hauf has started seriously campaigning against Bilbray in the primary, which could pull resources away from Bilbray in the runoff.[13] Hauf had put over a million dollars of his own money into his run in the primary special election.

Colorado

• Colorado's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent John Salazar (D) was elected in 2004 by a 50% to 47% margin. Salazar's victory was in part because his Republican opponent backed a locally unpopular plan to redistribute water from the western slope, the heart of this district, to Denver. Also, the election was generally good to Colorado Democrats, who gained a U.S. Senate seat (won by Salazar's brother, Ken), a House seat (this one), and control of the state legislature. But Republicans vow to take back this competitive (though narrowly won by President Bush) seat nestled in the Rocky Mountains of Western Colorado. Currently Republican Businessman Scott Tipton is planning to run.

• Colorado's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Marilyn Musgrave (R), a very conservative Republican who was one of the leading proponents of the Federal Marriage Amendment, won a surprisingly close 51% to 44% reelection in 2004 despite the Republican-leaning nature of her eastern Colorado district. Her district consists of all of Eastern Colorado well east of Denver and northeastern Colorado around Fort Collins and Loveland. Her Democratic opponent is state Representative Angie Paccione, and former Reagan appointee Eric Eidsness has entered the race as a Reform Party candidate.

• Colorado's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Joel Hefley (R), the dean of the Colorado delegation to the House of Representatives, announced on February 16, 2006 that he will be retiring from his seat and not seeking an 11th term. This district has a very strong Republican tilt, so strong that it has not elected a Democrat to represent it since its creation in 1876. Former El Paso County Sheriff John Anderson Colorado Springs Mayor Lionel Rivera, state Senator Doug Lamborn, recently retired Major General Bentley Rayburn, and former Congressional aide Jeff Crank are the declared Republican candidates thus far in the race. Democrat Jay Fawcett, who served 20 years in the Air Force and fought in the 1991 Gulf War, is the first Democrat to announce that he is running. Because of the conservative leaning nature of the district, which President Bush won with 65% in 2004 and reelected Hefley with 71%, it is largely believed that the winner of the Republican primary will emerge victorious in the general election against any potential Democratic opponent.^[3]

• Colorado's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Tancredo (R), a firebrand in the Republican caucus, has spent the last two years making numerous controversial statements and taking stances at odds with some of his electorate, such as opposing gun control in a district which experienced the Columbine Massacre, a stance which nearly cost him reelection previously. He won with 60% of the vote in 2004, however his opponent in 2006 will be liberal ex-marine Bill Winter. Tancredo's chances at reelection are very high despite his verbal gaffes because he represents a solidly Republican district that gave President Bush his highest vote total in the state, however he has alienated much of the Republican leadership by harshly criticizing George W. Bush's stances on illegal immigration, climaxing in a "screaming match" with Karl Rove at the White House. The position of the GOP on Tancredo remains ambiguous, and whether they will attempt to remove him or support him is currently unknown. Tancredo recently remarked that if U.S. Senator Wayne Allard were to retire in 2008, he (Tancredo) would run to succeed him.

• Colorado's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Beauprez (R) was reelected to a second term in 2004 with 55% of the vote, but won his first term by only 121 votes. His retirement to run for Governor of Colorado makes this seat highly competitive. The 7th District is located in the western Denver suburbs and was narrowly won by John Kerry in 2004. State education chairman Rick O'Donnell leads early polls for the Republicans, while former State Senator Ed Perlmutter leads former state Representative Peggy Lamm on the Democratic side. Dave Chandler, a Green, is also a candidate.

Connecticut

• Connecticut's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Rob Simmons (R) won reelection by 54% to 46% in 2004, in a Democratic-leaning district encompassing eastern Connecticut, which includes Norwich and New London. The 2002 nominee, former state Representative Joe Courtney is planning another run. Simmons has made no political mistakes, but Bush is highly unpopular in New England, which should help Courtney.

• Connecticut's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Chris Shays (R) won reelection by a 52% to 48% margin in 2004 and represents a Democratic-leaning district encompassing southwestern Connecticut that includes Bridgeport and Westport. Westport Selectwoman Diane Farrell, the 2004 nominee, is challenging Shays again. Additionally, there is reportedly significant support, among those in his party who are dissatisfied with his moderate stance, for a more conservative Republican to challenge Shays in the Republican primary - a move that, if it succeeded, would dramatically raise the chances for a Democrat to win the general election. However, no other Republican as yet has announced an intention to run.

• Connecticut's 5th congressional district— Although Incumbent Nancy Johnson (R) won with at least 60% of the vote in 2004 and faced a difficult challenge in 2002 where she won with just 54%, she is still a Republican in an increasingly Democratic leaning district. John Kerry won the district in 2004 and Al Gore won it when it she represented the 6th District in 2000. She faces a credible challenge from state Senator Chris Murphy. Johnson is popular in the district, but with Bush's popularity in New England at rock bottom, a Democratic victory is possible. In fact, Johnson very nearly lost in 1996.

Florida

• Florida's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Bilirakis (R) plans to retire, and many had not expected this seat to be very competitive as it is a Republican-leaning district located on Florida's Gulf coast north of Tampa. Bilirakis' son, state Representative Gus Bilirakis, has announced that he will run for his father's seat. He appears to be the front runner in his party, though he faces a primary challenge from chiropractor David Langheier. Former Hillsborough County Commissioner Phyllis Busansky is the likely Democratic nominee. After Busansky reported stronger than expected first-quarter fundraising, many have begun categorizing this race as competitive. Due in part to Busansky's fundraising, the DCCC has chosen her as one of 22 candidates that have the potential to pick up seats, and will likely provide Busansky with a high amount of funding.

• Florida's 11th congressional district— Incumbent Jim Davis (D) is running for governor, and this seat is not expected to be very competitive as it contains solidly Democratic Tampa and South St. Petersburg. Florida State Senate Democratic Leader Les Miller and Hillsborough County Commissioner Kathy Castor have announced that they will run for the seat.

• Florida's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Katherine Harris (R) — is planning to challenge Senator Bill Nelson, a Democrat, in 2006, and will vacate her Gulf Coast seat to do so. Polls show she faces an uphill battle in the Senate race, but any Republican likely has the edge to win her congressional district, which is solidly GOP-leaning and based in Sarasota and Manatee. Harris won reelection in 2004 with 55% of the vote, less than expected. State Representative Nancy Detert, banker George "Tramm" Hudson, wealthy automobile dealer Vern Buchanan, and former state Representative Mark Flanagan are running for the Republican nomination. Sarasota banker and businesswoman Christine Jennings is running for the Democratic nomination.

• Florida's 22nd congressional district— Incumbent Clay Shaw (R) has been elected to twelve terms in the house and has a local following going back to his days as Mayor of Fort Lauderdale in the 1970's. He is seeking reelection to his seat. But many Democrats hope that this time around it will be unlucky number 13. Shaw faced a tough challenge back in 2000, from state Senator Elaine Bloom, who lost by only 599 votes. But Shaw was redistricted into more favorable turf, and scored a somewhat easier reelections in 2002, and 2004. But now he is once again a top target of the Democrats - this time, state Senate Minority Leader Ron Klein plans to challenge Shaw. Expect this race to be very close, as Klein is a good fundraiser, and good friend of neighboring Congressman Robert Wexler. Shaw has been criticized for refusing to return $30,000 in campaign contributions from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Though Shaw won reelection to this seat in 2004, winning 63% of the vote, John Kerry still defeated George W. Bush by a margin of 50% to 48% in the district. Also, Shaw's opponent in 2004 dropped out before the election. The revelation that Shaw has lung cancer makes the race even more unpredictable.

Georgia

Main article: Georgia United States House elections, 2006

• Georgia's 3rd congressional district— A Republican mid-decade redistricting made this Macon-based district more compact and somewhat more Republican. Democratic Incumbent Jim Marshall faces a very tough race against former Congressman Mac Collins, who represented an adjoining district from 1993 to 2005. Marshall was reelected with 63% in 2004, but in 2002 he won by only 50.5% to 49.5%. This is one of the most competitive House races in the nation. Some think that Marshall hurt his chances when he voted against a Congressional resolution to condemn the radical Palestinian group Hamas.

• Georgia's 12th congressional district— John Barrow of the United States House of Representatives unseated first-term Republican Max Burns by 52% to 48% in a solidly Democratic district which Burns won over a scandal-tainted opponent in 2002. This year, Burns is seeking a rematch. Recent redistricting made this southern Georgia district more marginal, but the balance still leans to the Democrats.

Hawaii

• Hawaii's 2nd congressional district— In a surprise move, Rep. Ed Case announced in January of 2006 that he would challenge Daniel Akaka for the Democratic nomination for Senate. This opens up his Democratic-leaning seat, which includes Kauai, Maui, The Big Island, and part of Honolulu. The district has a strong Democratic tilt, although Republicans occasionally win elections there, and features a Democratic primary including former Lieutenant Governor Mazie Hirono, state Senator Matt Matsunaga, state Senator Ron Menor, state Senator Gary Hooser, state Senator Colleen Hanabusa, and state Representative Brian Schatz. Republicans running for the seat include former state Representative Quentin Kawananakoa, a descendant of the Hawaiian Royal Family, and state Senator Bob Hogue. Governor Linda Lingle tried unsuccessfully to bring Honolulu District Attorney Peter Carlisle into the race. Rep. Case won the 2004 election 63% to 37% in 2004.

Idaho

• Idaho's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Butch Otter (R) is running for Governor. Though it elected a Democrat in 1990 and 1992, the district, which contains the Idaho Panhandle region and most of the Boise metropolitan area, has been reliably Republican in recent years.

In the May 23 primary ultra-conservative state representative Bill Sali edged out a crowded field to win the Republican nomination with 26 percent of the vote. Attorney Larry Grant won the Democratic nomination. Sali is an extremely controversial figure in Idaho politics who clashed repeatedly with Republican leadership in the Idaho Legislature. He also ran a lot of negative ads against his fellow Republicans to win the nomination. All this may give Grant a boost in the general election, although Sali remains favored given the GOP tilt of the area and the popular Otter at the top of the ticket.

Other candidates include Constitution Party nominee Paul Smith and independent Dave Olson. A new party called the United Party [14] has also fielded a candidate, newspaper publisher and small business owner Andy Hedden-Nicely. These candidates are not expected to make a significant showing in the race.

Illinois

• Illinois's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Henry Hyde (R) is retiring after 16 terms in the House. Iraq war veteran L. Tammy Duckworth, with substantial backing from the state and national Democratic establishment, won her party's primary. State Senator Peter Roskam is running as a Republican. The district contains some of the western suburbs of Chicago in DuPage and Cook counties. Democratic strength in the district has grown in recent years, but the balance still tilts to the Republicans. Duckworth was damaged when she won the Democratic primary only narrowly and Republicans attacked her for not living in the district.

• Illinois's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Melissa Bean (D) defeated 35-year House veteran Phil Crane 52% to 48% in 2004, and is being targeted by Republicans who hope to regain control of the seat. Her seat is Republican-leaning and includes the northern suburbs of Chicago in and around Lake County. Investment banker David McSweeney, who has been willing to spend much of his own money on the campaign, won a crowded Republican primary. This race is a top Republican priority.

• Illinois's 10th congressional district— Although reliably Republican in past elections, this district, located in the northern suburbs of Chicago in coastal Cook County and Lake County, along Lake Michigan, voted for John Kerry and Barack Obama in 2004 which may make re-election a challenge for incumbent Mark Kirk (R). Democratic hopes for winning here rose after Melissa Bean's win in the nearby 8th Congressional District, which is more Republican. The Democratic candidate is GE Commercial Finance Director of Marketing Dan Seals.

• Illinois's 17th congressional district— This western Illinois district, which includes Moline, was unexpectedly vacated when longtime liberal Congressman Lane Evans announced that he would not seek reelection due to a decline in his health. The Democratic nominee will be selected by county party organizations. The Republican nominee, former newscaster Andrea Lane Zinga, ran against Evans in 2004 and won 39% of the vote. The district leans Democratic, but not overwhelmingly so.

Indiana

• Indiana's 2nd congressional district— Chris Chocola (R) won reelection in 2004 with 54% of the vote. Chocola was first elected in 2002 by a 50-46% margin. Democrat Joe Donnelly, who lost to Chocola 54-45% in 2004, is running again in 2006. Democrats blame Donnelly's 2004 loss on a lack of funding from the national party that allowed Chocola to outspend Donnelly by a two-to-one margin. President Bush has visited the South Bend district seven times since 2000, suggesting that Republicans may be concerned that Chocola is potentially vulnerable.

• Indiana's 8th congressional district— John Hostettler (R), who has only a 34% approval rating, is being challenged by Vanderburg County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth. Hostettler has a history of winning tough reelections, but Ellsworth is believed to be his most popular opponent to date. In a district that usually votes Republican in national elections but frequently supports Democrats locally, Hostettler may have to moderate himself after several verbal blunders in Congress, the most infamous being a widely denounced statement that, "Like a moth to a flame the Democrats can't help themselves when it comes to denigrating and demonizing Christians." According to the Democrats, the district is very marginal.[15] The district has been nicknamed "The Bloody Eighth" due to its frequent ousting of incumbent Congressmen, including in 1958, 1966, 1974, 1978, 1982, and 1994.

• Indiana's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Mike Sodrel (R) defeated incumbent Baron Hill by only 1,425 votes in 2004. Hill has announced he hopes to reclaim his seat. He faces anti-war challenger Gretchen Clearwater in the May 2nd primary. Sodrel is a self-described staunch Republican party loyalist in an evenly divided district. Republicans point out that Hill had the advantages of incumbency in 2004 and won't this time.

Iowa

• Iowa's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jim Nussle (R) is running for governor. His district is Democratic-leaning, and of the open seats so far is probably the most likely to change hands. It contains most of northeastern Iowa including large cities such as Dubuque and Clinton. State Representative Bill Dix, businessman Mike Whalen, and former state party chairman Brian Kennedy are running as Republicans, while attorney Bruce Braley and others are running as Democrats. Democrat Bill Gluba ran three separate times against Nussle, garnering larger percentages of the vote with each election. Nussle was reelected in 2004 with 55% of the vote but John Kerry won the district in the same year, signaling that the open seat will be very competitive come November 2006.

• Iowa's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Leach (R) is one of the most liberal republicans in the house. His district in 2004 was won with a large margin of 12% by John Kerry, making it the largest margin won by Kerry in a district represented by a Republican. It is quite possible that Leach might face competition in the Republican Primary. He faces a challenge from David Loebsack.

• Iowa's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Leonard Boswell (D) won a close reelection in 2004 in a competitive district containing Des Moines and its surrounding areas. Republican state Senate President Jeff Lamberti plans to challenge him. Boswell's age (70), severe health problems, and his breaking a term-limit pledge he made when he first ran for office could factor into the race.

Kansas

• Kansas's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Ryun (R) won re-election by just 56% in 2004, This district is home to Topeka, Manhattan (which is home to Kansas State University and Leavenworth. The district can be considered swing, before 1994, Democrats held the seat for 20 out of 24 years. Ryun also faces controversy over a house deal when Ed Buckham's U.S. Family Network sold the house to him at a $19,000 loss after two years of ownership, despite the fact that housing values were rising dramatically in that area. He is being challenged by Democrat Nancy Boyda.

• Kansas's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Dennis Moore (D) won a solid reelection in 2004, but this Kansas City-based district nearly ousted him in 2000 and 2002 and also voted for George W. Bush. Banker Chuck Ahner and state Representative Scott Schwab plan to challenge Moore in 2006, and with this Republican-leaning, independent-minded district, either Ahner or Schwab could pull off an upset.

Kentucky

• Kentucky's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ron Lewis (R) is seeking a sixth full term (seventh total) in this west-central Kentucky district. This district is conservative and Lewis has had no trouble winning reelection. But when first elected, he had promised to serve only six terms. He is being challenged by state Representative Mike Weaver, whose background in business and the military make it hard to portray him as a liberal. However, Weaver's fundraising has been disappointing.

• Kentucky's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Anne Northup (R) is a target for the Democrats every election; in 2004 and 2000, John Kerry and Al Gore both won her congressional district by two percent. While Northup has generally run close races, she won 60% of the vote in 2004 agaist a highly touted opponent. Redistricting after the 2000 census added a few more Republicans to the district, according to Congressional Quarterly. The Democratic candidate this year is John Yarmuth, the founder of local free publication the LEO. Democrats claim this race is winnable, but Yarmouth's liberal views and articles give Northup plenty of material for negative ads. See the article on the district for more on the race.

• Kentucky's 4th congressional district— First-term incumbent Geoff Davis (R) is being challenged by Democratic ex-Rep. Ken Lucas, who held the seat previously to Davis. Lucas defeated Davis 51% to 48% in 2002, and retired in 2004, adhering to a pledge of serving only three consecutive terms in the House. Lucas was among the most conservative Democrats in Congress and remains well-known in the district. His campaign is hobbed by a late start, however.

• Kentucky's 6th congressional district— Strong victories in a 2003 special election to fill the Congressional seat of now-Governor Ernie Fletcher and in the 2004 election make Incumbent Ben Chandler (D) difficult to beat in a district known for supporting incumbency. Chandler could conceivably face difficulty, however, if speculation increases that he may pursue being Governor of Kentucky in 2007. He is being challenged by marketing executive Elaine Carlson.

Louisiana

• Louisiana's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Congressmen William Jefferson (D) has been under intense investigation and the FBI has claimed that it has videotaped him accepting $100,000 in bribes. The police also found money in Jefferson's freezer that was hidden in frozen food products. While it is almost definitely unlikely this district will switch to the Republican Party, there is a strong possibility of a primary race here. The seat is located in heavily Democratic New Orleans, No Republican has represented this district since reconstruction.

• Louisiana's 3rd congressional district— In a December 2004 runoff, now-incumbent Charlie Melancon (D) squeaked into Congress by 569 votes over Billy Tauzin III, the son and namesake of his popular predecessor. His is a swing district in southeast Louisiana, which may make him vulnerable. However, Louisiana's unique open primary voting system (where everyone runs against everyone else, regardless of party affiliation, and if no one takes 50% then the top two enter a runoff) leaves everything subject to speculation. A potential wild card is the effect of comments made by House Speaker Dennis Hastert in the wake of Hurricane Katrina, in which he publicly questioned whether the federal government should rebuild much of the city of New Orleans. The backlash from his comments, and from the general perception of less effective response by the Republican administration, could benefit Democrats in the state. However, many voters (particularly African-Americans and the poor, two strongly Democratic demographics) have moved elsewhere while the cleanup commences, and it's unclear how many of them will return. Melancon is facing state Senator Craig Romero (R), who finished a close third in the 2004 open primary.

• Louisiana's 7th congressional district— Incumbent Charles Boustany (R) won 55% to 45% in the December 2004 runoff, and should be a good bet for reelection in his relatively conservative Southwest Louisiana district. He got a break when Chris John, the Democrat who represented this district from 1997 until his Senate run in 2004, decided not to run again. Boustany is likely to be opposed by attorney Hunter Lundy of Lake Charles, who lost to John in the 1996 runoff. However, this district was heavily damaged by Hurricane Rita, and it is not known how many voters have temporarily – or permanently – moved elsewhere.

Maryland

Main article: Maryland Congressional election, 2006

• Maryland's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Ben Cardin (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Paul Sarbanes. The Democratic field is already crowded, with a number of candidates, including lawyer and retired Army officer Mishonda Baldwin, former WMAR newscaster Andy Barth, former Baltimore Health Commissioner Dr. Peter Beilenson, businessman and former Maryland Democratic Party Treasurer Oz Bengur, State Senator Paula Hollinger, lobbyist Kevin O'Keefe, and Baltimore attorney John Sarbanes, son of retiring Senator Paul Sarbanes. No Republicans have announced their intention to run yet, so this seat is expected to remain Democratic. The district consists of parts of Baltimore City as well as parts of Anne Arundel, Baltimore, and Howard Counties. It includes the state capital of Annapolis.

Michigan

• Michigan's 7th congressional district— Incumbent freshman Joe Schwarz (R) won with 58% of the vote in 2004, Schwarz has been attacked by the Club for Growth. The Club is backing his 2004 primary opponent, former state Representative Tim Walberg, Walberg has been attacking Schwarz for his positions on abortion, gun control, and border security.

• Michigan's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Joe Knollenberg (R) did not have a great campaign in 2004. Though he won with 58% of the vote, this was only after he outspent his opponent (attorney Steve Reifman) by over a 10 to one ratio. For a 7-term incumbent, this is less than impressive. Also, the fact that Bush barely won his district with 50% of the vote shows that it is no longer a Republican stronghold. Knollenberg is very vulnerable this year. Radio talk host Nancy Skinner is the leading democratic challenger. Skinner has raised a considerable amount of money compared to the other candidates in this race. She has been endorsed by the UAW, AFL-CIO, and NOW.

Minnesota

• Minnesota's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent John Kline (R) was reelected in 2004 due to the collapse of his challenger's campaign, winning by a margin of 57% to 40%. Things were expected to be very different in 2006. Former FBI Agent Coleen Rowley, who accused the bureau of mishandling pre-9/11 intelligence, is running as a Democrat, and her presence initially garnered media attention. The 2nd district, south of the Twin Cities, leans Republican but is not out of reach for a Democrat (it was held by Democrat Bill Luther from 1995 until redistricting caused his defeat by Kline in 2002). However, Rowley's credibility was damaged when her campaign website showed an image of Kline's face imposed on Colonel Klink from Hogan's Heroes. After widespread criticism, she publicly apologized. Veteran state Senator Sharon Marko launched a campaign for the Democratic primary in February 2006 and was believed to be the party favorite. However, on March 29, Marko dropped out of the race.

• Minnesota's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Martin Sabo (D) is retiring after 26 years in the House. He won reelection with 70% of the vote in 2004 in a district that went for John Kerry by 71%. It is strongly Democratic and no one expects it to change hands. The state Democratic Party has endorsed state Representative Keith Ellison, while Sabo has endorsed his Chief of Staff, Mike Erlandson. While the Republicans have said they will contest the seat by running a "fun, spirited campaign", they have openly admitted doubts that they will capture it in the Democratic stronghold of Minneapolis.[16]

• Minnesota's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Kennedy (R) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Democrat Mark Dayton. The sixth district is located in the northern suburbs of St. Paul and Minneapolis and extending northwest to St. Cloud. The Independence Party of Minnesota candidate for the House seat is student and political newcomer John Binkowski, a longtime resident of St. Mary's Point, Minnesota. The Republican nominee for the House seat is State Senator Michele Bachmann, an outspoken social conservative. Patty Wetterling, who mustered 46% against Kennedy as the Democratic candidate in 2004, is the Democratic nominee again. She originally stated her intent to make a second try for the House seat; then campaigned for the U.S. Senate instead; then abruptly dropped out of the Senate race and launched a second campaign for the Sixth District House seat. At the party's nominating convention. she defeated Elwyn Tinklenberg, a former Mayor of Blaine, Minnesota and a former minister who is opposed to abortion and gun control. Tinklenberg had entered the race only after receiving Wetterling's assurance that she would not be running, and he was supported by the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which considered him to be more electable due to his moderate views. Now the liberal Watterling has to win over his former supporters, some of whom are angry about her going back on her word. The northern Twin Cities suburbs that dominate the Sixth District are understood to have been the politically quirky heart of Jesse Ventura's success at the expense of the two major parties. This district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so.

• Minnesota's 8th congressional district— Sixteen Term Incumbent Jim Oberstar (D) has had little trouble for re-election ever since he's won his first term and while the seat has been relatively safe and hasn't had a Republican represent this district since 1947, Oberstar faces a potential challenge from former Republican U.S. Senator Rod Grams.

Mississippi

• Mississippi's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Bennie Thompson (D) is facing an aggressive primary challenge from state Representative Chuck Espy, son of former Congressman and Agriculture Secretary Mike Espy. The winner of the primary will face Republican Tchula Mayor Yvonne Brown. Both Epsy and Brown have criticized Thompson for leaving the House Agriculture Committee. The distrcit is over three-fifths African-American and solidly Democratic, though Republicans occasionally win local elections in the area.

Nebraska

• Nebraska's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Jeff Fortenberry (R) won his first term in 2004 with 54% of the vote in the wake of the retirement of moderate and popular Republican congressmen Doug Bereuter whom was very critical of the religious right's growing influence on the party. Fortenberry is much more conservative than his predecessor, echoed by the fact that he won a relatively small margin of victory in a district that previously sent Bereuter to congress by margins of 60% - 65% and reelected George W. Bush by 66% in 2004. A Green Party activist drew away a full 3% of the vote last time, and Democrats are mobilizing for another campaign. Former Nebraska lieutenant governor Maxine Moul filed papers in January 2006 to challenge Fortenberry.^[4]

• Nebraska's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Tom Osborne (R) is not seeking reelection, as he decided to run for the Nebraka gubernatorial nomination instead. His district, covering western Nebraska, is strongly Republican. Nebraska legislator Adrian Smith won the Republican nomination; he will face off against the Democratic candidate, rancher Scott Kleeb.

Nevada

• Nevada's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Jim Gibbons (R) is running for governor. In 2004 he was reelected with 67% of the vote. His wife, state Assemblywoman Dawn Gibbons, is running for his seat, as has Secretary of State Dean Heller and conservative state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle. The district, which encompasses the vast majority of rural Nevada, is solidly Republican (since its creation in 1983 it has never elected a Democrat to represent it). Even so, in national elections the district tends to vote for the party that is favored by the national political climate, which is trending Democratic thus far. In addition, Democratic candidate Jill Derby of northern Nevada, who has served on the University Board of Regents, has the advantage of running unopposed, while the three Republicans are engaged in a very competitive primary that will force them to spend money. Recent polling done by Research 2000 for The Reno Gazette-Journal and News 4 has shown the race to be competitive. One matchup, between Dawn Gibbons (R) and Jill Derby (D) showed Gibbons with 35% and Derby with 30%. [17]

• Nevada's 3rd congressional district— Since the creation of the district in 2002, incumbent Jon Porter (R) has won both elections by comfortable margins. However, this district is almost evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, and Porter has drawn the ire of Senator Harry Reid. Reid's former press secretary Tessa Hafen, backed by her ex-boss, is challenging Porter, as is chiropracter Barry Michaels.

New Hampshire

• New Hamsphire's 1st congressional district— Republican incumbent Jeb Bradley is seeking a third term. He cannot plausibly be attacked as a conservative Bush clone, but Democrats are targeting him for defeat anyway. Democrats running against him include state House Minority Leader Jim Craig, state Representative Peter Sullivan, and Rye School Board member Gary Dodds. Geroge W. Bush is highly unpopular throughout New England, giving Democrats an opening.

• New Hamsphire's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Charles Bass (R) is in a state that is trending towards the Democratic Party, in 2004 the Democrats unexpectedly captured the Governor's Mansion and also managed to win the presidential race in this state. Bass remains popular, however, winning reelection in 2004 with 58% percent of the vote while his district was won by John Kerry 52% to 47% in the presidential election. Bass is a self-described political moderate, and is being challenged in the primary by Berlin Mayor Bob Danderson, who opposes some of Bass's more liberal views, such as drilling for oil in the arctic. The likely Democratic nominee is the 2004 challenger Paul Hodes, an attorney. A UNH poll from May 4, 2006 shows Hodes a lot closer to Bass than expected, having a 42% lead over Hodes, who has 35%.

New Jersey

• New Jersey's 2nd congressional district— Frank LoBiondo (R) won with 65% of the vote last time, however, he had broken a pledge made back in 1994 that he would only serve 6 terms. Also, two of the Democratic pickups in the 2005 assembly race were in districts entirely contained within LoBiondo's district as well as Corzine's landslide victory in several major counties located entirely within the 2nd makes for a potentially competitive race. Viola Thomas-Hughes, a council member in Fairfield Township, Cumberland County, New Jersey, is running against him. Lobiondo has also received money from convicted lobbyists Jack Abramoff and Michael Scanlon.

• New Jersey's 5th congressional district— Scott Garrett (R) won with 58% of the vote against an underfunded Anne Wolfe in a normally Republican district. His strongly conservative views have also been the subject of some controversy. Garret was one of only a few Republicans to vote against the emergency aid to Hurricane Katrina victims. Democrat Paul Aronsohn is planning to challenge Garrett and with more support from the Democrats as well as several towns within the district won by Corzine in the governor's race, this could be a pickup opportunity. Garret is also facing a primary challenge against Michael Cino.

• New Jersey's 7th congressional district— Mike Ferguson (R) won with 57% of the vote in the 2004 election against Stephen Brozak. His recent perceived opposition to the "morning after pill" may become an issue in a district that voted for John Kerry in 2004. State Assemblywoman Linda Stender (D) will challenge Ferguson in 2006.

• New Jersey's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Bob Menendez (D) was appointed to the U.S. Senate by Governor-elect Jon Corzine, leaving his House seat vacant. The district, situated between New York City and Newark and includes Bayonne, Jersey City, West New York, and Hoboken is heavily Democratic and the next Congressman will probably be chosen in the Democratic primary. Assemblyman Joseph Vas and State Assembly Speaker Albio Sires are expected to run in this primary, with Sires considered the favorite. Sires has said that he would be willing to consider drilling in the ANWR to help reduce oil and gasoline prices.

New Mexico

• New Mexico's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Heather Wilson (R) has routinely managed difficult reelections since 1998, winning in 2004 by a 10% margin. But in 2006 she will likely face Democrat Patricia Madrid, who is barred from seeking a third term as New Mexico's Attorney General. Madrid would undoubtedly be a stronger and more recognized candidate than previous challengers to Wilson and she is also well-funded. The district, centered in Albuquerque, is very competitive and was narrowly won by Al Gore and John Kerry.

New York

• New York's 3rd congressional district— Incumbent Peter King (R) was elected for his sixth term by a healthy margin in 2004, 63% to 37%, however King is the only Republican congressman left on Long Island, where Republicans once were the majority party. Although King has broken with his party on a few key issues, he is potentially vulnerable in a district that is increasingly moderate to liberal. Nassau County Legislator David Mejias announced his candidacy on May 25 [18] and will be King's strongest opponent in years.

• New York's 11th congressional district— Incumbent Major Owens (D) is retiring after 12 terms. In 2004 Owens was reelected with a staggering 94% of the vote. His seat should remain Democratic, as it is a heavily African-American one in heavily Democratic New York City in the center of Brooklyn. His son Chris Owens is seeking the seat, but so are state Assemblyman Nick Perry, state Senator Carl Andrews, and New York City Councilwoman Yvette Clarke and New York City Councilman David Yassky.

• New York's 13th congressional district— Since easily winning a special election in 1997, conservative Republican incumbent Vito Fossella had long been reelected without trouble in this district, based in Staten Island and the Bay Ridge section of Brooklyn. But in 2004, his share of the vote dropped dramatically against an under funded opponent. This caught the attention of Democrats, who now are making this race a priority. Lawyer and Bay Ridge community leader Stephen Harrison is the only announced Democratic candidate in the race. New York City Councilman Bill de Blasio is thinking of running as well, and he's well-liked in his Brooklyn-area council district. Helping Democrats is that the proposed Dubai port takeover was more unpopular here than perhaps anywhere else in the country. However, Staten Island dominates the district's population and is historically mistrustful of the rest of the city. This will help Fossella, who once represented Staten Island on the city council, himself.

• New York's 20th congressional district— Incumbent John E. Sweeney (R) has never really had any election troubles up until now. Sweeney has faced controversy over his drunken appearance at a registered party at Alpha Delta Phi on April 22 at Union College, Some witnesses claim he was 'very loud and cursing,' and also slurring his words while trying to discuss policy with the students. Sweeney also faces controversy over a sexist remark he made about his opponent Kirsten Gillibrand claiming that she was "a pretty face".

• New York's 24th congressional district— Incumbent Sherwood Boehlert (R) has announced his retirement after twenty-four years, making this a seat of considerable focus for the democrats in the follow up to the mid terms. Boehlert is considered a moderate republican, and the district is considered to be a swing district. George Bush won this district by 53% in the 2004 election, but by 3,000 votes, in the 2000 presidential election. The likely Republican nominee will be state Senator Ray Meier, while the likely Democratic nominee will be Oneida County District Attorney Mike Arcuri, but both face primaries. [19]

• New York's 25th congressional district— Incumbent James T. Walsh (R), ran unopposed in 2004 and while the Syracuse based district hasn't had a Democrat represent it since 1971, John Kerry won the district in 2004 by 2.5% points. Thus, Walsh had the dubious distinction of being the only Republican to win unopposed and not have George W. Bush win his district. Democrats are fielding at least two candidates in the Sept. 12 primary: former congressional aide Dan Maffei and lawyer Paloma Capanna.

• New York's 26th congressional district— Incumbent Tom Reynolds (R), the National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman, faces a rematch with local industrialist Jack Davis in the 26th District. While the district leans substantially Republican, Reynolds was held to 55% of the vote in 2004 by political neophyte Davis who has used the intervening time to build a political base. He will campaign on Reynolds' support of free-trade which he claims has cost the district thousands of well-paying jobs. Reynolds is one of the Republican party's premiere fund-raisers and Davis is independently wealthy promising that this will be an expensive campaign

• New York's 29th congressional district— Freshman incumbent Randy Kuhl (R) Kuhl was elected with 50% in a three way race in 2004. He faces a potentially strong challenge from former Navy officer Eric Massa who is a long-time friend of 2004 presidential candidate Gen. Wesley Clark. Massa has been an extremely adept fundraiser and has become a darling of the net roots with numerous favorable articles on popular progressive weblogs such as dailykos.com and mydd.com. In March, President Bush visited the district, in part as a boost to Kuhl's re-election campaign.

North Carolina

• North Carolina's 3rd congressional district— Walter B. Jones (R) won 71% of the vote in 2004, but will be an interesting race to watch in 2006 as he has gone from having French fries referred to as "freedom fries" in House cafeteria menus as a protest against French opposition to the 2003 invasion of Iraq, to calling on President George W. Bush to apologize for misinforming Congress to win authorization for the war. Jones said, "If I had known then what I know today, I wouldn't have voted for that resolution." On June 16, 2005, he joined with three other Congress members (Neil Abercrombie, Dennis Kucinich, and Ron Paul) in introducing a resolution calling for the withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq to begin by October 2006.

• North Carolina's 8th congressional district— Robin Hayes (R) was elected for a fourth term in 2004 by a 56% to 44% vote. His opponent, Beth Troutman, was a production assistant on the TV show The West Wing with no prior experience in office and with only a tiny fraction of the funding Hayes had. For a three-term Republican incumbent with substantial funding, in a Republican-leaning district against such an opponent, 56% is a less than spectacular margin. The district consists of a large portion of southern North Carolina east of Charlotte. Democrats have made an issue of Hayes' vote in favor of CAFTA, which could severely hurt textile jobs in his district. Hayes' vote came after his stating he was "flat-out, completely, horizontally opposed" to the bill and pressure by the Bush administration. Hayes also received the second largest amount of money among all Congressional candidates from Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. Hayes has refused to return the $47,000 he received from the former House Majority Leader's political action committee, despite calls from Democrats to do so. However, Democrats do not have any strong candidates running.

• North Carolina's 11th congressional district— Charles H. Taylor (R) won with 55% in 2004, far behind George W. Bush in the area. His district consists of the North Carolina Panhandle around Asheville. He will face tougher competition from former professional quarterback Heath Shuler (D) in 2006. So far things are not looking good for him, with Shuler out raising him by over a hundred thousands of dollars so far and he has been dogged by ethical scandals in his fundraising team. Recent reports have implicated him in the Jack Abramoff scandal. However, Taylor is one of the wealthier members of Congress and can tap into his own funds if necessary.^[5]. Shuler is also independently wealthy after saving most of the money he earned as a Washington Redksin, and doing well in the real estate business.

North Dakota

• North Dakota's At-large congressional district— Incumbent Earl Pomeroy (D) has won reelection by varying margins against widely differing opponents since his first election in 1992. In 2002, he had his toughest race ever, winning by winning by 52% to 48% against then-state Tax Commissioner Rick Clayburgh who is now an Associate Justice on the North Dakota Supreme Court. In 2004, he was reelected with little trouble. This year, he will be challenged by farmer Matt Mechtela, a former President of the North Dakota Soybean Council. Pomeroy is favored to win again, though he is not assured of reelection.

Ohio

• Ohio's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Steve Chabot (R) was part of 1994's Republican Revolution, when he unseated an incumbent. He is being challenged by Cincinnati City Councilman John Cranley, who challenged him in 2000. The first district, which takes in most of Cincinnati, is marginal and has elected both Democrats and Republicans in the past.

• Ohio's 4th congressional district— Incumbent Michael Oxley (R) is retiring after twenty-five years. The district is located in much of northwestern Ohio and is heavily Republican, having not elected a Democrat represent the area since 1936. Republican state Senator Jim Jordan won the primary comfortably and is the overwhelming favorite in general election.

• Ohio's 6th congressional district— Incumbent Ted Strickland (D) is running for Governor of Ohio. The district, stretching across Ohio's eastern edge, from the Kentucky border to the Pennsylvania border, is marginal and should be highly competitive. Both parties' choices have been damaged by self-inflicted blunders. Republican state House Speaker Pro Tempore Chuck Blasdel failed to pay property taxes on two defunct businesses he once owned, while Democratic state Senator Charlie Wilson was embarrassed after failing to submit the 50 valid signatures for his ballot petition, and had to wage a costly write-in campaign to be his party's nominee.^[6] But Wilson made a major comeback when his write-in campaign earned him 67% of the vote in the primary. Bladsel won 49% in a three-way primary. Wilson is now the front-runner in the general election, though not a shoo-in.

• Ohio's 13th congressional district— Incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) is challenging Republican Senator Mike DeWine. His district, in the Lorain/Akron area, is heavily blue-collar and has a strong pro-labor Democratic tilt. However, Republicans appear to have scored a recruiting coup with the candidacy of Lorain Mayor Craig Foltin, a popular figure in a city that gave George W. Bush only 32% of the vote. Normally, Democrats would have very little trouble holding this district. But Foltin's personal base in a Democratic stronghold gives Republicans a glimmer of hope. Republican hopes stemmed in part on the Democrats nominating a flawed candidate. But former state Representative Betty Sutton is the Democratic nomine and while she generates little excitement, she is a very viable contender. However, she won only after a very nasty multi-candidate primary and one of her defeated opponents, former Congressman Tom Sawyer, has not only refused to endorse her but filed a campaign finance violation complaint with the Federal Election Commission.

• Ohio's 15th congressional district— This district takes in much of Columbus, and Deborah Pryce (R), Chair of the Congressional Republican Conference, has been reelected without incident for over a decade. But the toxic unpopularity of Governor Bob Taft and perhaps Pryce's close ties to the Republican leadership give Democrats a potential opening. She is being challenged by Franklin County Commissioner Mary Jo Kilroy, possibly her strongest opponent to date.

• Ohio's 18th congressional district— Although incumbent Robert W. Ney (R) has continuously won this district since 1994, he has a less than stellar ethics record, having admitted involvement with the Jack Abramoff's scandal and has been identified as the unnamed representative implicated by Abramoff's plea bargain. Zack Space, a popular figure from Dover was a surprise winner for Democratic nomination. Located in southeastern Ohio and including Steubenville and Zanesville, this district leans Republican, but not overwhelmingly so. Currently, Space leads Ney by a small margin.

Oklahoma

• Oklahoma's 5th District — Incumbent Ernest Istook (R) is retiring to run for governor against the incumbent Democrat Brad Henry. This solidly Republican, very conservative district includes Oklahoma, Pottawatomie, and Seminole Counties in central Oklahoma, and is demographically dominated by Oklahoma City. Republicans running include Lieutenant Governor Mary Fallin, state Corporation Commissioner Denise Bode, Oklahoma City Mayor Mick Cornett, state Representative Fred Morgan, and state Representative Kevin Kelvey. Democrats have a respectable candidate in Oklahoma County Clerk Patti Pressley.

Oregon

• Oregon's 5th congressional district— Incumbent Darlene Hooley (D) for the most part has faced easy re-election every single time. In the 2004 election, Hooley won with just 53% of the vote in a district that was narrowly won by President George W. Bush by 1%. Hooley faces Republican Mike Erickson. The district spans Salem and parts of Corvallis and Portland. This is considered a swing district.

Pennsylvania

• Pennsylvania's 6th congressional district— Jim Gerlach (R) won reelection by a 51% to 49% margin in 2004 and represents a very competitive district in suburban Philadelphia. Lois Murphy, who was narrowly defeated by him in 2004, is running again. Gerlach also faces questions concerning over $30,000 he has received for his campaigns from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ARMPAC, which has been involved in an alleged money laundering scheme. Democrats have criticized Gerlach for not returning the disputed money or donating it to charity, although he has stated that he would give the money away if DeLay is convicted.

• Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district— Curt Weldon (R) won reelection with 59% of the vote in 2004, but represents a Democratic-leaning district that incorporates much of Democratic-leaning Delaware County in suburban Philadelphia. He is facing retired 3-Star Navy Admiral Joe Sestak(D). Weldon caused controversy while campaigning when he questioned Sestak's dedication to living in the district because his family lives in the Washington suburbs and he did not send his daughter to a Pennsylvania hospital for clinical treatment. Sestak denounced Weldon for his statement in light of the fact that his four-year-old daughter is suffering from a malignant brain tumor and even Weldon's fellow Republicans were embarrassed by his remarks.[20] Sestak has also proven to be a capable fundraiser.

• Pennsylvania's 8th congressional district— Mike Fitzpatrick (R) won in 2004, but his district, based in suburban Bucks County, is considered politically moderate. In 2004 he defeated Democrat Virginia Schrader by a margin of 56% to 42%. Fitzpatrick's views, especially on abortion, are more conservative than those of most people in the Philadelphia suburbs, and that may be an issue for him in 2006. Iraq War veteran (Member of the 82nd Airborne) Patrick Murphy has announced his candidacy and is already getting more support from the national Democratic Party than his 2004 counterpart, Ginny Schrader.

• Pennsylvania's 10th congressional district— Don Sherwood (R) has strong backing as a result of redistricting, and he won reelection without opposition in 2002 and 2004, but recently was involved in an affair and physical abuse scandal with Cynthia Ore which brought on a $5.5 million lawsuit. On November 8, 2005 the two settled out of court for an undisclosed amount. He was expected to win the Republican primary easily over teacher Kathy Scott, as she had very little money or campaign staff, but she polled a surprising 44% of the vote against him. His critics claim this is proof of weakness and that professor and Naval Reserve officer Chris Carney, his Democratic opponent, has a shot at winning in November.

• Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district- For many years, Democrat John Murtha has won reelection easily. But his condemnation of George W. Bush's conduct of the Iraq War and his warrior background have made him a Republican target. The southwestern Pennsylvania district has voted Republican in some elections. He faces Washington County Commissioner Diana Irey. In 2004 he was unopposed, but in 2002 he won 73% of the vote.

• Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district— Allyson Schwartz (D) is a freshman Congressman, and won her first election with 56% of the vote. Former Apprentice contestant Raj Bhakta will be her opponent, adding a hint of celebrity to the race. However, Schwartz's fundraising prowess — she raised more money in the 2004 cycle than all but four candidates, including incumbents — may ward off serious opposition. Bhakta's aspirations may be damaged by his admitting to having been arrested twice for drunk driving.[21]

South Carolina

• South Carolina's 5th congressional district— John Spratt (D) is a twelve-term Democrat in an increasingly Republican district. George W. Bush increased his margin of victory in 2004 in the district from 55% to 57%, and Spratt in the past is known to have felt the heat of some very close races (52% in 1994, 56% in 1996). However, of late, he has only faced marginal Republican opposition. This year he is facing popular conservative state Representative Ralph Norman. Norman has been successful in fundraising and will mount a full scale campaign in the Autumn.

South Dakota

• South Dakota's At-large congressional district— Stephanie Herseth (D) was narrowly elected to the House in a special election in 2004 and more convincingly in the 2004 general election. However, South Dakota's heavily conservative electorate and the defeat of Senate Democratic Leader Tom Daschle does not make the seat a safe one. At the same time, Herseth is very popular, with approval ratings in the 70's.

Tennessee

• Tennessee's 1st congressional district— Incumbent Bill Jenkins (R) is retiring after 5 terms in office. The district, located in eastern Tennessee, is considered to be a very safe Republican seat considering that George W. Bush won 68% of the vote in 2004 and that it has been held by a Republican (except for two terms in the 1870s) since in the 1860s. Several Republicans have officially announced that they are seeking to replace Jenkins: Family Nurse Practitioner, Peggy Parker Barnett, State Representative David Davis of Johnson City, former Johnson City Mayor Vance Cheek [22], and Sullivan County Mayor Richard Venable.^[7]

• Tennessee's 9th congressional district— Incumbent Harold Ford Jr. (D) is running for the open Senate seat being vacated by Republican Bill Frist. Though he may face an uphill battle in that race, whichever Democrat chooses to run for his House seat should have little trouble, as the 9th is based in the Democratic stronghold of Memphis.

Texas

Main article: Texas United States House elections, 2006

• Texas's 2nd congressional district— Incumbent Ted Poe (R) unseated Democrat Nick Lampson after heavy redistricting changed the political landscape, allowing him to win with 55% of the vote. His opponent in November will be Democrat Gary Binderim who is already making an issue of Poe's party-line votes, which have been calculated to have lined up with Republican leadership 96% of the time, as well as Poe's refusal to return thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay's ARMPAC. This newly drawn district is considered competitive.

• Texas's 10th congressional district— Incumbent Michael McCaul (R), who won easily last time due to no Democratic opposition (his opponent, a Libertarian, won 15% of the vote), will face a tougher challenger in that of 2004 Libertarian presidential candidate, Michael Badnarik, and the recent Democratic strategy of challenging all seats means that the Democrats may run a candidate here as well, drawing votes from both McCaul and Badnarik. Some of the Democratic candidates for the nomination include former government engineer and Vietnam veteran Ted Ankrum, former newspaperman and real estate agent Sid Smith, poet and business owner Paul Foreman and former emergency room nurse Pat Mynatt. The 10th district spans a huge swath of southeast Texas from Austin to Harris County outside Houston.

• Texas's 17th congressional district— Incumbent Chet Edwards (D) won reelection by a 51% to 48% margin in 2004 after the 2003 Texas redistricting changed his exurban Central Texas district substantially and made it more Republican, he also pulled off the victory despite the fact Bush won the district by a whopping 40%. His district includes Waco and Crawford, the location of George W. Bush's ranch. In 2004, Edwards was helped by the fact that his opponent, then-state Representative Arlene Wohlgemuth, was nominated only after a nasty, expensive primary. This year, he is being challenged by Van Taylor, an attorney and Iraq War veteran from a locally prominent family.

• Texas's 22nd congressional district— Retiring Incumbent Tom DeLay (R) had been facing mounting ethical challenges and corruption charges in recent months, and won reelection by a surprisingly small 55% to 41% margin in 2004, even though George W. Bush carried the suburban Houston district with 64%. On September 28, 2005, DeLay was indicted by a grand jury in Travis County, Texas. As a result, he felt forced to step down from his post as House Majority Leader. DeLay's district will face a strong challenge from former Rep. Nick Lampson, a Democrat whose district he dismantled during the 2003 mid-decade redistricting. Lampson's former district contained much of the eastern area of DeLay's present district. In addition, former Republican Congressman Steve Stockman is running as an independent, which could siphon off support from the Republican Candidate. In the event of a three-way race, only a plurality is required to win the seat. The Republican nominee to replace DeLay will be decided at a future date. In announcing his plans not to seek reelection, Delay noted his poor poll showing and the constant criticisms he was expecting. DeLay officially withdrew from the race on Tuesday, April 4th. "Those polls showed him beating Democrat Nick Lampson in the general election but in a race that would be too close for comfort, DeLay said." [23] [24]. Lampson currently has some $1.7 million in cash on hand.

Utah

• Utah's 2nd congressional district- Although incumbent Jim Matheson (D) won re-election in 2004 by a margin of 13%, his district is in a heavily Republican state. The district includes some Democratic areas in Utah, such has the wealthy California transplant filled Summit County, the hippie communities of Grand County, the large Greek communities of Carbon County, the Navajos of San Juan County, and heavily Democratic Salt Lake City and County. Matheson is a regular target of the GOP every election. State Representative LaVar Christensen (R) of Draper, a small affluent suburb of Salt Lake City, is rumored to be planning a run. However, the most circulated daily newspaper in Utah, The Salt Lake Tribune, has characterized him as too extreme for the area. For example Christensen was one of two major sponsors of a bill that amended Utah's Constitution to ban same-sex marriage, the amendment was rejected by two-thirds of Summit County, half of Grand County, and only passed by 4% in Salt Lake County, while the state as a whole averaged 66%, with the most supportive areas to banning such marriages being located in the first and third district, not the second. Matheson has approval ratings in the high 70's, the highest for any elected official in Utah. Key to note is that Democrat Jim Matheson won re-election in a state that gave George W. Bush 72% of the vote and John Kerry 26%; however others note that the state gave the Republican presidential candidate in 1996, Bob Dole, a much lower 54%.

Vermont

• Vermont's At-large congressional district — Incumbent Bernie Sanders (I), a self-described socialist who represents the entire state of Vermont, plans to run for the Senate seat being vacated by fellow Independent Jim Jeffords. Vermont state Senate President Pro Tempore Peter Welch (D-Windsor County), the expected Democratic nominee, will face the winner of the Republican primary (scheduled for September 12, 2006). Republicans; former Vermont Adjutant General Martha Rainville, Major Gen., USANG, (ret), and Vermont State Senator Mark Shepard, (R-Bennington County), are vying for their party's nomination. Welch was helped when state Representative David Zuckerman decided not to wage a third-party campaign.

Virginia

• Virginia's 2nd congressional district— In 2004, after representative Ed Schrock withdrew from seeking a third term, then-state Delegate Thelma Drake (R) replaced him on the Republican ballot and was elected 55% to 45% against attorney and Marine Corps reservist David Ashe. Virginia Beach Commissioner of the Revenue Phil Kellam has filed papers to run. Kellam is arguably Virginia Beach's most popular Democrat, and could quickly put this seat into play.

Washington

Main article: Washington United States House elections, 2006

• Washington's 8th congressional district— This district, at the eastern edge of the Seattle metropolitan area, was considered Republican-leaning before 2004, and the popular former King County Sheriff was expected to win comfortably. Incumbent Dave Reichert (R) won it 52% to 46% in 2004. Former Microsoft executive Darcy Burner (D) is challenging him in 2006.

West Virginia

• West Virginia's 1st congressional district— For many years, Congressman Alan Mollohan (D) has won reelection without any difficulty, and often without major party opposition. But this year, he's come under scrutiny after it was revealed that non-profit groups who received federal earmarks sponsored by him were staffed by friends and that he may have financially benefited from some of the earmarks. The national media has pointed out that his net worth expanded from some $630,000 to several million in a few years and his opponents are charging conflict of interest. The bad press caused his fellow Democrats to compel him to resign his position as ranking Democrat on the House Ethics Committee. He has a credible opponent in state Delegate Chris Wakim, a tavern owner and Persian Gulf War veteran.

• West Virginia's 2nd congressional district— Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito has been a popular vote getter in this Charleston based district, but in traditionally Democratic West Virginia, a Republican can't take reelection for granted. In fact, her margin in 2004 slipped somewhat against a second-tier opponent. This year she faces attorney Mike Callaghan, a former state Democratic Party Chairman. Capito is well funded and popular, but with Bush's popularity not high, she can't take anything for granted.

Wisconsin

• Wisconsin's 3rd congressional district— This district, in southern and western Wisconsin, includes some conservative-leaning rural areas, for whom corn is a pivotal campaign issue. Incumbent Ron Kind (D) won the 2004 election 56% to 44, a less than spectacular margin for the 2004 race, against state Senator and former real estate agent Dale Schultz, and the state of Wisconsin favored John Kerry for president. The western edge of the District is rapidly gaining population in the form of exurbs spilling over from the Twin Cities, Minnesota area; fast-growing exurban areas are notorious for trending Republican. So far, the only declared Republican candidate is Paul Nelson, a real estate agent (like Schultz) and former Marine.

• Wisconsin's 8th congressional district— Incumbent Mark Green (R) — Green is running for governor like many of his colleagues, and his seat, in rural northeastern Wisconsin, is Republican-leaning, though has elected a Democratic congressman as recently as 1996 and is centered around the cities of Green Bay and Appleton. State Assembly Speaker John Gard and state Assemblywoman Terri McCormick are seeking the seat as Republicans; businessman Jamie Wall, former De Pere Mayor & Brown County Executive Nancy Nusbaum, and physician Steve Kagen are seeking the seat as Democrats. Nussbaum won name I.D. in 2002 as the Democratic nominee for Lieutenant Governor, while Kagen and Wall have personal wealth to fall back on. Both parties have pitfalls in this election: GOP frontrunner Gard is not popular, while the Democratic primary is becoming increasingly negative.

Wyoming

• Wyoming's At-large congressional district— Barbara Cubin (R) is running for reelection. Wyoming, generally considered one of the strongest, if not the strongest, Republican stronghold in the country, gave her a surprisingly small margin of victory in 2004 with 55% of the vote, despite George W. Bush winning Wyoming by a landslide 69% in the 2004 Presidential Election. She also had a difficult primary that year. Her Democratic opponent this year will be Teton County School Board Chairman Gary Trauner. His campaign was helped when a May 8 poll by Rasmussen Reports showed Cubin leading Trauner by only 47% to 43%, closer than even Democrats had expected. And the poll is hard to attack as it also shows Senator Craig Thomas leading his Democratic opponent by 64% to 25%. Popular Democratic incumbent Governor Dave Freudenthal is also up for reelection, though it is not known what kind of effect there will be on the state's sole Congressional election.