PHOENIX (By Chip Scutari, Arizona
Republic) May 15, 2005 - A string of political victories has cast an aura of
invincibility around Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano as she heads toward
her 2006 re-election bid, leaving Republicans to pin their hopes on
candidates who haven't hinted that they will actually run.
Since January, Napolitano has once again insulated herself against possible attacks from the Republican political machine by agreeing to business tax cuts and corporate tuition tax credits for private schools, ideas drawn from the GOP playbook.
Her approval ratings are hovering above 60 percent. The leading Republican contenders have already bowed out of the race even though President Bush won the state by 11 points in 2004. Despite the obstacles, Republicans seem content biding their time.
For Arizonans, the stakes riding on the 2006 governor's race are huge. Despite her conservative turn, Napolitano has kept the Democratic Party alive as a political force in Arizona. Through vetoes and budget negotiations, she has thwarted some conservative policies such as private-school vouchers and pushed for more money for childcare and education.
Meanwhile, Republicans, who dominate most of the Arizona political world, say they relish their role as underdogs. Time will tell if they are bluffing. They are pinning their hopes against Napolitano on a big advantage in voter registration, some 2006 ballot measures that appeal to social conservatives and the belief that there's plenty of time for her popularity to dip.
"The governor hasn't done anything to ease the crisis of illegal immigration," said Republican strategist Nathan Sproul. "And Janet Napolitano is not willing to provide meaningful tax relief to Arizona's working families. Republicans have to make that a key issue."
Napolitano is approaching the situation cautiously, acknowledging that there's a danger in overconfidence.
"I think a candidate who says they are unbeatable is a candidate who is going to get beaten," she told The Arizona Republic. "I work for every vote I get. I intend to work really hard to keep the governorship. I don't think resting on any laurels I might have is a smart thing to do."
High-profile candidates or not, Republican strategists say they have an ace in the hole: a 150,000-voter statewide registration edge over Democrats. Additionally, they believe potential ballot initiatives, such as a possible ban on gay marriage and a push to make English the state's official language, will drive up turnout for the "value voters," who could be a loyal asset.
Republicans point out that Napolitano probably won't receive as much of a boost from Indian tribes and racetracks, which pumped nearly $40 million into their 2002 campaigns for Indian gaming propositions. That money aided Democratic voter turnout in what turned out to be an extremely close governor's race, which Napolitano won by about 12,000 votes.
Buoyed by such advantages, the theory goes, a solid but relatively unknown Republican candidate such as Senate President Ken Bennett could defeat Napolitano.
Former Democratic Congressman Sam Coppersmith, a Napolitano fan, doesn't buy the Republicans' quiet confidence.
"I think their issues look a lot like their field," said Coppersmith, who served from 1992 to '94. "They don't have anyone all that interesting to run, and I don't think they have any issues that are all that interesting to run on."
Napolitano knows that Arizona voters can turn on a dime if something goes sour. In 2000, former Republican Gov. Jane Hull was riding high with a 70 percent approval rating. Then a scandal over a bill that forced the state to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars in rebates for alternative-fuels vehicles caused her popularity to dive.
"Prior to the alternative-fuels debacle, Gov. Hull was one of the highest-rated governors," said Jaime Molera, one of Hull's former aides. "Everybody wanted her endorsement and to be seen with her. And then an issue like that happens, and things can go south really fast. In two or three months, her poll numbers went way down."
To some Republicans, future controversies involving immigration could be to Napolitano what the alternative-fuels fiasco was to Hull.
The 2006 ballot likely will include some initiatives aimed at controlling illegal immigration. Although an initiative to make English the official state language remains uncertain, Arizona voters will decide if undocumented immigrants who commit a serious crime should be denied bail. The emotions surrounding border security and the influx of illegal immigration have dominated the current legislative session.
Napolitano has vetoed several Republican-backed bills couched under the umbrella of illegal immigration. One measure would have denied people from casting a vote at the polls if they didn't have proper identification. Napolitano vetoed Senate Bill 1118, saying that she thought it violated the federal Voting Rights Act because it might prevent registered voters from getting a provisional ballot if, for example, they were robbed of their identification shortly before the election.
Napolitano adamantly defended her vetoes of immigration bills this session, and she gave a passionate defense of her record on illegal immigration.
"You call it a provisional ballot measure; well that doesn't keep illegal aliens from voting," Napolitano said. "It means people like senior citizens or folks who don't show up at the poll with the right ID are denied the right to vote. . . . It prevents lawful citizens from voting."
She pledged to have a plan that would help bring high-wage jobs to Arizona, and she also wanted to create a comprehensive statewide system for rating the quality of preschools. Those haven't materialized. Her attempted reforms of the tax code and her pledge to eliminate some tax loopholes have also melted away. Republicans say she has avoided action on recommendations from her handpicked tax commission because she does not want to talk about possible tax increases.
It's possible none of this will matter if the Republicans fail to find a candidate who fires up their voters.
Carmona's resume is unusual: Born in Harlem, he was a high school dropout who became a Green Beret and was awarded two Purple Hearts in the Vietnam War. He was a deputy sheriff in Pima County and a University of Arizona medical professor.
Napolitano belted out a long and loud chuckle when asked if she preferred running against Quayle or Carmona.
"Come on, I'm not going to comment on that," Napolitano said. "I know I want to remain governor and move Arizona forward. I'm not tooting my own horn, but when you're doing the job you said you would do and you're achieving things and your numbers stay strong, that does affect the calculus about whether someone would run or not."
Steve Voeller, who was Congressman Jeff Flake's chief of staff, said that other GOP candidates can win in 2006 because of the conservative political climate percolating in Arizona. One name Voeller mentioned is Senate President Bennett, who is quietly eyeing a run.
"Republicans can win on tax cuts across the board," said Voeller, who runs a lobbying group that pushes for smaller government. "She's not unbeatable just on the numbers alone. And she's taken risk averseness to a new level. The bold move would be to give some of the new tax revenues back to the people of Arizona. She can be beat."
Since January, Napolitano has once again insulated herself against possible attacks from the Republican political machine by agreeing to business tax cuts and corporate tuition tax credits for private schools, ideas drawn from the GOP playbook.
Her approval ratings are hovering above 60 percent. The leading Republican contenders have already bowed out of the race even though President Bush won the state by 11 points in 2004. Despite the obstacles, Republicans seem content biding their time.
For Arizonans, the stakes riding on the 2006 governor's race are huge. Despite her conservative turn, Napolitano has kept the Democratic Party alive as a political force in Arizona. Through vetoes and budget negotiations, she has thwarted some conservative policies such as private-school vouchers and pushed for more money for childcare and education.
Meanwhile, Republicans, who dominate most of the Arizona political world, say they relish their role as underdogs. Time will tell if they are bluffing. They are pinning their hopes against Napolitano on a big advantage in voter registration, some 2006 ballot measures that appeal to social conservatives and the belief that there's plenty of time for her popularity to dip.
"The governor hasn't done anything to ease the crisis of illegal immigration," said Republican strategist Nathan Sproul. "And Janet Napolitano is not willing to provide meaningful tax relief to Arizona's working families. Republicans have to make that a key issue."
Napolitano is approaching the situation cautiously, acknowledging that there's a danger in overconfidence.
"I think a candidate who says they are unbeatable is a candidate who is going to get beaten," she told The Arizona Republic. "I work for every vote I get. I intend to work really hard to keep the governorship. I don't think resting on any laurels I might have is a smart thing to do."
Republican exodus
For Republicans, the exodus of potential candidates began earlier this year when U.S. Rep. J.D. Hayworth, considered Napolitano's strongest challenger, decided not to run. Former Maricopa County Attorney Rick Romley followed suit, as did former Gov. Fife Symington and U.S. Rep. Rick Renzi. Republican Party officials began trying to woo two top-flight but politically inexperienced Arizonans: Marilyn Quayle, wife of former Vice President Dan Quayle; and U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona, a Tucson doctor who has a rags-to-riches life story. Neither has been available for comment. Publicly, at least, they have not given any indication they will challenge Napolitano in 2006.High-profile candidates or not, Republican strategists say they have an ace in the hole: a 150,000-voter statewide registration edge over Democrats. Additionally, they believe potential ballot initiatives, such as a possible ban on gay marriage and a push to make English the state's official language, will drive up turnout for the "value voters," who could be a loyal asset.
Republicans point out that Napolitano probably won't receive as much of a boost from Indian tribes and racetracks, which pumped nearly $40 million into their 2002 campaigns for Indian gaming propositions. That money aided Democratic voter turnout in what turned out to be an extremely close governor's race, which Napolitano won by about 12,000 votes.
Buoyed by such advantages, the theory goes, a solid but relatively unknown Republican candidate such as Senate President Ken Bennett could defeat Napolitano.
Former Democratic Congressman Sam Coppersmith, a Napolitano fan, doesn't buy the Republicans' quiet confidence.
"I think their issues look a lot like their field," said Coppersmith, who served from 1992 to '94. "They don't have anyone all that interesting to run, and I don't think they have any issues that are all that interesting to run on."
Napolitano knows that Arizona voters can turn on a dime if something goes sour. In 2000, former Republican Gov. Jane Hull was riding high with a 70 percent approval rating. Then a scandal over a bill that forced the state to pay out hundreds of millions of dollars in rebates for alternative-fuels vehicles caused her popularity to dive.
"Prior to the alternative-fuels debacle, Gov. Hull was one of the highest-rated governors," said Jaime Molera, one of Hull's former aides. "Everybody wanted her endorsement and to be seen with her. And then an issue like that happens, and things can go south really fast. In two or three months, her poll numbers went way down."
To some Republicans, future controversies involving immigration could be to Napolitano what the alternative-fuels fiasco was to Hull.
Republican priorities
In addition to immigration, Republicans hope that the 2006 campaign will revolve around income-tax cuts and expanding school choice.The 2006 ballot likely will include some initiatives aimed at controlling illegal immigration. Although an initiative to make English the official state language remains uncertain, Arizona voters will decide if undocumented immigrants who commit a serious crime should be denied bail. The emotions surrounding border security and the influx of illegal immigration have dominated the current legislative session.
Napolitano has vetoed several Republican-backed bills couched under the umbrella of illegal immigration. One measure would have denied people from casting a vote at the polls if they didn't have proper identification. Napolitano vetoed Senate Bill 1118, saying that she thought it violated the federal Voting Rights Act because it might prevent registered voters from getting a provisional ballot if, for example, they were robbed of their identification shortly before the election.
Napolitano adamantly defended her vetoes of immigration bills this session, and she gave a passionate defense of her record on illegal immigration.
"You call it a provisional ballot measure; well that doesn't keep illegal aliens from voting," Napolitano said. "It means people like senior citizens or folks who don't show up at the poll with the right ID are denied the right to vote. . . . It prevents lawful citizens from voting."
A tough target
Republicans are finding that Napolitano, much like a quick, catlike boxer, is a tough target to hit. She has carefully picked issues that sell with mainstream Arizona, such as education, military base preservation and protecting children. But she has fallen short in some key areas.She pledged to have a plan that would help bring high-wage jobs to Arizona, and she also wanted to create a comprehensive statewide system for rating the quality of preschools. Those haven't materialized. Her attempted reforms of the tax code and her pledge to eliminate some tax loopholes have also melted away. Republicans say she has avoided action on recommendations from her handpicked tax commission because she does not want to talk about possible tax increases.
It's possible none of this will matter if the Republicans fail to find a candidate who fires up their voters.
Carmona's resume is unusual: Born in Harlem, he was a high school dropout who became a Green Beret and was awarded two Purple Hearts in the Vietnam War. He was a deputy sheriff in Pima County and a University of Arizona medical professor.
Napolitano belted out a long and loud chuckle when asked if she preferred running against Quayle or Carmona.
"Come on, I'm not going to comment on that," Napolitano said. "I know I want to remain governor and move Arizona forward. I'm not tooting my own horn, but when you're doing the job you said you would do and you're achieving things and your numbers stay strong, that does affect the calculus about whether someone would run or not."
Steve Voeller, who was Congressman Jeff Flake's chief of staff, said that other GOP candidates can win in 2006 because of the conservative political climate percolating in Arizona. One name Voeller mentioned is Senate President Bennett, who is quietly eyeing a run.
"Republicans can win on tax cuts across the board," said Voeller, who runs a lobbying group that pushes for smaller government. "She's not unbeatable just on the numbers alone. And she's taken risk averseness to a new level. The bold move would be to give some of the new tax revenues back to the people of Arizona. She can be beat."
