Drive to register Latino voters falls short of organizers' goals

PHOENIX (By Daniel González, Arizona Republic) November 2, 2006 — As more than 100,000 supporters of comprehensive immigration reform rallied in Phoenix in April, they chanted and carried signs saying, "Today we march. Tomorrow we vote."

But with Election Day days away, organizers in Arizona concede an effort to register 22,000 new Hispanic voters fell far short. The same is true of registration efforts in San Francisco, Dallas and other big cities where huge pro-immigrant rallies took place. Nationally, organizers set a goal of registering 1 million new Hispanic voters by 2008, but to date have registered 146,000.

As a result, a vast Hispanic voter turnout that organizers hoped would send a message to political leaders on Nov. 7 probably won't happen.

The results reveal the challenges of getting more Hispanics, who historically have voted at low rates, to the polls. Organizers hoped to build a broad political movement by channeling the energy from the street marches to the ballot box. But experts say that could take years, not months. Critics, meanwhile, say the lackluster voter drive is evidence the movement has fizzled.

Still, there are signs something has taken root. Requests for mail-in ballots from Hispanic voters in Arizona are up considerably. That has led organizers to still predict Hispanic voters could make an impact on Election Day, enough perhaps to possibly tip several close state and congressional races.

Unrealistic goals

Organizers signed up 4,972 new Hispanic voters in Maricopa County since the summer, far short of the 22,000 goal.

"Either our goal was unrealistic or we didn't have a sufficient structure to reach it," said Ruben Villarreal, an organizer for the Washington, D.C.-based Center for Community Change.

The organization provided funds to three community groups to register voters in Maricopa County: the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now (Acorn); Immigrants Without Borders; and the Arizona Coalition for Migrant Rights. Volunteers targeted supermarkets, churches and community events in Hispanic neighborhoods.

Only one group, the Arizona Coalition for Migrant Rights, met its goal, signing up 2,600 new Hispanic voters, Villarreal said. A program targeting young voters was supposed to register 10,000 more, but never got off the ground.

Villarreal said the disappointing effort shows there is still a lot of work in Maricopa County to build and train volunteer networks with the skills to register new voters.

"Training people who know the ins and outs is difficult," said Lydia Hernandez, of the Arizona Coalition for Migrant Rights. "It's like a sell. You have to have the skills."

Several obstacles

Some say the energy from the street marches six months ago has faded.

"I wouldn't say it's died out completely, but it's definitely fizzled," said Caroline Espinosa, spokesperson for NumbersUSA, an immigration-control group based in Arlington, Va.

The movement weakened, Espinoza said, because many who participated in the marches were undocumented and aren't eligible to vote. What's more, U.S. citizen Hispanics are split on the issue of granting legal status to undocumented immigrants, one of the main themes of the marches.

Fred Solop, a Northern Arizona University political science professor, says it will take years, not months, to build a voting bloc on par with the explosive growth of the Hispanic population.

Hispanics historically have among the lowest voter turnout rates because as a group, they tend to have lower education and income levels. "Education and income are more closely related to turnout" than race or ethnicity, he said.

Hispanics also don't generally see the ballot box as a friendly tool, Solop said.

"Historically their interests have not been well represented at the ballot box. It's been better represented on the streets," Solop said.

Building on success

Other efforts to boost Hispanic voter participation were effective, organizers say. At least 1,900 legal permanent residents attended a dozen citizenship workshops this fall aimed at creating more potential voters, organizers say.

And as of last Friday's deadline, more than 65,820 registered voters in Arizona with Hispanic surnames had officially applied to vote by mail, according to Joel Foster, Arizona spokesman for My Family Votes, a group aligned with the Service Employers International Union. That is an 89 percent increase from the last midterm election in 2002, when 34,858 voters with Hispanic surnames cast early ballots, Foster said.

It's hard to say, however, whether the increase in early-ballot requests by Hispanics was due to the drive, or an overall increase in early-ballot requests across the board, said Kevin Tyne, deputy secretary of state.

Organizers mailed applications for early ballots to 130,000 registered Hispanics statewide, 70,000 of them in Maricopa County. They targeted registered Hispanics who haven't voted regularly and followed up with phone calls and door knocking.

Some came to the door of John Arroyo, who hadn't voted since registering for the first time seven years ago.

"Believe it or not," he said, "I'm going to this time."