PHOENIX (By Robbie Sherwood, Arizona Republic) July 21, 2006 — Arizona could snatch the national political spotlight if it is chosen to move ahead of New Hampshire and become the second stop in the 2008 Democratic presidential sweepstakes.

Democratic National Committee officials are expected to select two states on Saturday, one from the Rocky Mountain West and one from the Deep South, to grab the first presidential caucus after Iowa in late January. They will also choose another newly created slot right after New Hampshire and before the Feb. 3 opening of primary-election season.

Democrats are hoping the shake-up will inject issues important to key constituencies of Latinos, Blacks and labor unions into the presidential discussion.

Arizona is a natural choice because of its large Latino and American Indian population, as well as an emerging biotechnological and established agricultural economies, said Fred DuVal, a former Clinton staff member and longtime Democratic operative who lobbied Arizona's case to the DNC. Gov. Janet Napolitano, DuVal and other Arizona Democrats have made a spirited pitch and are neck and neck with Nevada as the top Western contender. Arizona already has a relatively early Feb. 3 primary.

"We have a stronger party, much more ethnic diversity and a much more diverse economy," DuVal said. "We are a better launching pad for a presidential candidate. Nevada has more labor density, and they have Harry Reid."

Senate Minority Leader Reid is one of the most powerful Democrats in the nation, and he has led his state's push for the early primary-caucus slot.

If Arizona is chosen, the caucus would compel candidates to address state issues such as immigration and border security, drought and forest health in front of a nationwide audience. It would also push candidates to purchase political advertising while traversing the state with their entourages and the media, giving Arizona's economy a bump, as well, DuVal said.

Governor wants change

Arizona also has 10 electoral votes, more than Nevada, Colorado and other states.

In her pitch to the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee, Napolitano outlined 614 potential caucus sites throughout the state and pledged $1 million from the state party for the costs of the caucus and voter education. No taxpayer money would be used for the effort.

Napolitano also reported the hiring of a consultant with extensive experience planning the Iowa caucuses. She added that Arizona's key issues transcend the state's borders, perhaps unlike the more homogeneous state of Iowa, a farming-based Midwest state.

"Candidates learn and debate agriculture policy when in Iowa," Napolitano wrote to the committee. "In Arizona, our candidates will debate issues such as border/international policies, growing a knowledge-based economy to compete globally and building a world-class public education system. These are not just Arizona or Southwestern issues; they are American issues that impact all 50 states."

Napolitano used herself to demonstrate that voters in Arizona, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 150,000, are open-minded and willing to cross party lines for the right candidate. Republicans control the Arizona Legislature, and Bush won Arizona by 11 points in 2004. But Napolitano and Democrat Attorney General Terry Goddard won in 2002, and President Clinton carried Arizona in 1996.

Enter, New Hampshire

Arizona normally holds a presidential preference primary for both parties, where voters go to the polls to cast ballots. But Arizona Democrats did experiment with the more freewheeling caucus approach, where voters gather publicly to debate and choose a candidate, in 1996 when Clinton won.

The early Democratic caucus plan for Arizona could face some bumps because it has detractors among influential party leaders. Both Bill and Sen. Hillary Clinton, a potential presidential contender, oppose the idea because it may diminish the importance of New Hampshire, according to Time magazine. And it's unlikely New Hampshire politicos will sit still and let another state jump in front. A New Hampshire law says the state is to be the first primary in the nation, though it follows Iowa out of tradition and because Iowa holds a caucus. New Hampshire could simply vote to move ahead of any state that jumps the queue.

Republican political strategist Bert Coleman argued that Arizona would make a poor candidate for an early Democratic caucus, for many of the same reasons Napolitano touted. If the election is going to be a referendum on Bush's policies, then Arizona is a success story, Coleman said.

"It would be hard for Democrats to talk about the lagging economy in Arizona with the state as prosperous as it is right now under a Republican administration," Coleman said. "Democrats will want to choose a state where they can go in and talk about misery."

John Zogby, a national pollster based in upstate New York, said an early presidential caucus for Arizona would put the "state in the limelight."

In addition, "candidates (would) start thinking about Arizona not just in presidential years but two or three years before the race begins. I really don't see a downside," he said.

A GOP move?

If Arizona's Democratic primary-caucus moves up, Republicans will have to decide if they want to follow suit or go forward with their own vote in the state's traditional GOP primary slot in mid-to-late February.

Republicans did not hold a presidential primary in 2004, when Napolitano moved Arizona forward to Feb. 3 for Democrats, because President Bush was the nominee. Republican National Committee spokesman Tucker Bounds said Republicans are watching the Democrat moves with interest, but it will be up to the individual state parties to change the GOP primary date.

State GOP Chairman Matt Salmon said he was open to the idea because he'd love to see Arizona profiled earlier in the game, but he said the matter hasn't really come up for discussion among Arizona Republican leaders.

"Republicans are focused on returning Jon Kyl to the Senate in 2006, not the date of the 2008 presidential primary or caucus," said Glenn Hamer, the party's executive director. "Considering that Democrats got waxed by double digits in 2004, they're going to have to do a lot more than move the primary date on the calendar."

A key player in any Arizona decision for Republicans will be U.S. Sen. John McCain, a likely presidential contender in 2008. Paul Hickman, McCain's state director, said Republican strategists have not talked about moving up Arizona's presidential primary date.

McCain would be the overwhelming favorite to win the Arizona primary no matter when it was held but could risk upsetting voters in New Hampshire (where he beat Bush in 2000) if his home state steals their limelight.